Part IV: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency.

The race is closing and there are some trends that spell doom for Barack Obama! In the last few weeks there has been a 20 point closing of the gap, with voters 18-30 years old, in favor of McCain. There has been a 16 point closing of the gap, with voters 30-45 years old, in favor of McCain. There has been no change with voters 45-65 years old and among voters 65+ years old, Obama has moved ahead by 11 points. What does all this mean?

• The changes with voters 18-30 and 30-45 show that John McCain's attacks on Obama as a tax and spend liberal are working. People from their mid-20s to their mid-40s are historically more concerned about someone raising their taxes.
• The lack of change with voters 45-65 shows they might just have made up their minds.
• The change in favor of Obama with voters 65+ show that Obama's attacks on McCain, which link him to President Bush's Social Security Reform, are working.

What do all these things mean when put together?

They show that the race is tightening and that a number of people are becoming wary of Barack Obama's and Joe Biden's many gaffes and unpopular statements of the last month. Hardworking Americans do not like to hear, "Spread the wealth". People do not like to hear, "Paying taxes is patriotic". People are also starting to wonder why a year ago Obama said rich was someone making more than $1 million a year, then a few months ago said rich was $250k, then Biden said it was $150k, and now Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico and a supporter of Obama, says it is $120k? Even if those changes are not really changes in policy and/or are taken out of context and/or anything else that Obama's campaign wants to use to defend them...it does not matter! Perception is reality and you can not erase those statements from this campaign. They are there and no amount of explaining will make them go away and people will decide on their own what they mean.

How do these changes support my contention that Obama will win the popular vote but McCain will win the electoral college and the Presidency?

These changes back up my prediction by showing that Obama is vulnerable. My assertion that people will be scared away from Obama the closer they get to actually having to vote for him, also has weight. Lastly, I actually take the 11 point swing towards Obama, with voters 65+, as a positive for McCain. McCain will not do it, for his own reasons, but a group called GOPTrust.com is going to saturate all the swing states with an ad about Reverend Wright. This ad will have the most effect on voters 65+, they are more likely to be patriotic and should be more sensitive to anti-American sentiments and racial issues, thus negating the only positive trend that Obama has in the closing weeks of this election.

Part III: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency.

I have been saying for weeks that Obama would win the popular vote by the largest amount by any candidate that did not win the election. Why is this? People are focusing on the national poll...that poll does not matter. That poll shows the popular vote and the popular vote does not decide the Presidency. One must look at the state polls to find out who will be President.

In Part I and Part II of this post I stated that the polls are wrong by a large percentage this year because of the Bradley Effect(there will be a Bradley Effect in these swing states), the polls are weighted heavily Democratic(because these poll takers are guessing how new voter registration will effect the election), military members are polling at 3 to 1 for McCain(and they are not included in national or state polls), and the last effect will just be straight racism. I add these factors together and I come up with my own, Wookie Effect. This effect predicts that Obama is polling 8% too high(2% Bradley Effect, 2% racism, 0.05% military vote, 3.95% poll weighting).

Obama has these states in the bag:
California(55)
Oregon(7)
Washington(11)
Minnesota(10)
Wisconsin(10)
Illinois(21)
Michigan(17)
New York(31)
Maine(4)(not winner take all)
Vermont(3)
Massachusetts(12)
Rhode Island(4)
Connecticut(7)
New Jersey(15)
Delaware(3)
Maryland(10)
District of Columbia(3)
Hawaii(4)
Obama has 227 electoral votes if he carries all these "solid" blue states.

McCain has these states in the bag:
Idaho(4)
Utah(5)
Arizona(10)
Wyoming(3)
South Dakota(3)
Nebraska(5)(not winner take all)
Kansas(6)
Oklahoma(7)
Texas(34)
Arkansas(6)
Louisiana(9)
Mississippi(6)
Alabama(9)
Tennessee(11)
Kentucky(8)
South Carolina(8)
Alaska(3)
McCain has 137 electoral votes if he carries all these "solid" red states.

These are the so called swing states:
Nevada(5) Obama +1.5 adjusted McCain +6.5
Montana(3) McCain +5.6
Colorado(9) Obama +5.4 adjusted McCain +2.6
New Mexico(5) Obama +8.4 adjusted Obama +0.4
North Dakota(3) Obama +2 adjusted McCain +6
Missouri(11) Obama +2.7 adjusted McCain +5.3
Indiana(11) McCain +3.8
Ohio(20) Obama +2.8 adjusted McCain +5.2
West Virginia(5) McCain +5.6
Virginia(13) Obama +8 adjusted EVEN
North Carolina(15) Obama +1.5 adjusted McCain +6.5
Georgia(15) McCain +6.8
Florida(27) Obama +2 adjusted McCain +6
New Hampshire(4) Obama +9.4 adjusted Obama +1.4
Pennsylvania(21) Obama +11 adjusted Obama +3
Iowa(7) Obama +11.8 adjusted Obama +3.8
There are 174 electoral votes up for grab in these "swing" states.

After adjusting the totals from the polls(270 to be elected):
Obama 259 electoral votes
McCain 261 electoral votes
Too close to call Virginia(13) and New Mexico(5)


So, by my calculations the person who wins Virginia wins this election. After I adjust the polls, Virginia is even with Obama 48.8% McCain 48.8%. Virginia is the key boys! Winner take all!